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Teddy Seidenfeld

“THREE DEGREES OF IMPRECISE PROBABILITY [IP] THEORY”

April 15, 2016

Professor Teddy Seidenfeld (H.A. Simon University Professor of Philosophy and Statistics at Carnegie Mellon University) works on foundations at the interface between philosophy and statistics, often being concerned with problems that involve multiple decision makers. For example, in collaboration with M.J. Schervish and J.B. Kadane (Statistics, CMU), they relax the norms of Bayesian theory to permit a unified standard, both for individuals acting as separate decision makers and collectively, in forming a cooperative group agent. By contrast, this is an impossibility for strict Bayesian theory. For a second example, in collaboration with Larry Wasserman (Statistics, CMU), they examine the short-run consequences of using Bayes rule for updating a set of expert Bayesian opinions with shared information. They focus on anomalous cases (they call dilation), where an experiment is certain to result in new evidence that increases the experts’ uncertainty about an event of common interest, where uncertainty is reflected in the extent of probabilistic disagreements among the experts.

His current collaborations with Kadane and Schervish include a theory for indexing the degree of incoherence in non-Bayesian statistical decisions, work on the representation of coherent choice-functions using sets of probabilities, and investigations involving scoring rules for probabilistic forecasts. The three also work together on the development of finitely additive expectations for unbounded random variables.

 

At his public lecture, 3:30-5:30pm, on Friday, April 15 in the Leadership Auditorium, Room 2501, Student Center, Professor Seidenfeld will discuss his work on imprecise credences. This work corrects several common mistakes about the representation of imprecise credences and the use of imprecise credences to make rational choices.  Flyer – Seidenfeld

Event contact information. For information about Professor Seidenfeld’s visit, contact Paul Weirich, Philosophy Department, University of Missouri (weirichp@missouri.edu). For the Philosophy Department’s web announcement, see the website.